Correction: I wrote earlier "That story started with 10MM e-commerce advertisers moving their spend into CTV back in 2017, and with the objective of disrupting these 200 “retail-cartel” advertisers in the U.S. But the growth of CTV spend is now being driven by both sets of advertisers, and that is a story that is also not about advertising." But Connected TV spend started earlier in the decade, perhaps as early as Pluto TV's launch in 2013. That has been updated.

I realized something after writing about Upfronts over the past two weeks: this story of connected TV (CTV) ad spend is and also isn’t about advertising. 

It is about advertising because it’s a story about how 200 “retail-cartel” advertisers are not adapting to a longer-term trend of shifting, declining audience demand for linear TV: projected linear spend is projected to stay flat for the next three years. 

It’s also about Connected TV (CTV) advertising spend more than doubling over five years with a compound annual growth rate of 15.43% (highlighted above, though eMarketer now estimates total U.S. CTV ad spend will reach $18.89B this year, an 8% increase over the projection, above).

That story started with 10MM e-commerce advertisers moving their spend into CTV earlier last decade, and with the objective of disrupting these 200 “retail-cartel” advertisers in the U.S. But the growth of CTV spend is now being driven by both sets of advertisers, and that is a story that is also not about advertising.

As the growth of e-commerce sales continues to outpace U.S. retail sales, the data needs of both 200 “retail-cartel” advertisers and 10MM e-commerce advertisers are going to drive the evolution of linear and CTV advertising. All will increasingly rely on publishers to supply better data on consumers to improve the reach, segmentation, variability, and complexity of their marketing. But not all publishers will not be able to meet that evolving demand.