A reminder that this week’s schedule will be:
My predictions for 2023 are scheduled to be published in The Information next week.
The four trends at the heart of PARQOR mailings in Q4 2022 were the product of conversations and research throughout 2022. They are a narrower way of looking at the marketplace than focusing on a broad and dynamic concept like “the streaming wars”, but the exercise ends up being more focused, richer in details and therefore more rewarding.
The one trend I wrote the least about was “There is no such thing as a CTV household, what happens next?” As I wrote on Wednesday, I thought that story would be dynamic. There were angles I was hoping to see — like evidence of advertising spend shifting from Connected TV to smart audio — and I never saw any evidence of those happening. It doesn’t mean those things are not happening, but the signals are harder to find.
The only concrete signals I found? National Public Radio and Edison Research found that 35% of Americans 18 and older now own a smart speaker. Also, Amazon had an estimated installed base of 110M smart speakers across North America in 2021, and Google is estimated to have less than half that. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for smart speaker annual shipments in North America is forecast to be just 1.3% for 2021 to 2026, according to research firm Omdia.
So, the trend may be directionally right, but it’s not an obvious story. In 2023, it may be worth keeping an eye on if/when that shift is happening, but not writing more until there is more evidence.
Below are other trends and follow-ups to Q4 2022 trends that I will be considering over the holiday. I will announce the three or four themes for Q1 2023 in early January.
Wishing Happy Holidays to you and your families!
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Say what you will about the shortcomings of legacy media’s efforts to take on Netflix, but they end 2022 with databases of millions of credit cards. Disney has hundreds of millions of credit cards. ...